Assessment of Commerce Potency on Economic Growth in Italy: Empirical Analysis

Abstract

The link between exports, imports and economic growth in Italy has been extensively discussed by
historiography. This paper investigates the relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in
Italy. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data were collected from the reports of the World Bank for
the periods between 1960 and 2015, was tested by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationary
test, Co integration analysis of the Vector Auto Regression Model and the Granger-Causality tests.
According to the empirical results, we found that exports and imports have not any effect on economic
growth. Also, we discovered, according to the Granger-Causality tests that there is no any relationship of
causality between trade and economic growth. However, and according to the results of the correlation
analysis, we found that trade and economic growth in Italy are positively correlated, meaning that the
strategy economic posing by Italy is not efficacious to solve economic problems.