Studying the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Iran foreign trade during boycott period

Abstract

Due to the aim of studying the effects of exchange rate fluctuations and the relation with foreign trade in Iran in boycott period, this research is descriptive from aspect of method and functional kind. The used samples of Iran Central Bank and custom are used as sampling method and the sample volume is the seasonal data of 2006–2015 years. Inferential and descriptive statistics as variables charts, distribution charts and correlation coefficient are used in this study then econometrics methods including Diki- Flora single root test and mobile average method for estimating exchange rate fluctuations and Johansson – Yosilius methods or self-regression method based on single root were used. Research findings indicate that there is a relation between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign trade in short term but this relation doesn’t exist in long term. The results of analyzing variance show that at first exchange rate fluctuations is low and increases gradually and generally exchange rate has had many fluctuations in boycott years but foreign trade growth have increased in a direct line gradually and lowly. This shows that fluctuations couldn’t affect foreign trade seriously. Finally, one can conclude that in 2006 – 2015-time output, exchange rate fluctuations haven’t had many effects on foreign trade and foreign trade has been affected by other variables. Internal gross production affects foreign trade in long term.