Integrating Behavioral Economics with Political Science to Predict the Effects of Public Policy on Voter Turnout

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the connection between the voting behavior of individuals and their perceptions regarding certain public policies in terms of behavioral economics. In particular, the effects of cognitive biases and social norms on voters' decisions are considered. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the impact of different public policies on voter participation, this study involves combining the insights of political science and behavioral economics. The design of this paper includes both quantitative and qualitative methods. Thus, the study involves an analysis of the national election statistics, voters' surveys, and interviews. Multivariate regression analysis shows that gain-framed policies, such as tax incentives and welfare policies, have a strong positive correlation (r = 0.78) with voter participation, which means that voting probability is 15% higher than that with loss-framed policies. In turn, loss-framed public policies correlate negatively with voting probability (r = -0.63) for marginalized population groups. Randomized controlled trials further confirmed that gain-framed policies were more effective in increasing voter participation. Qualitative information proves the significance of the fairness of policies, as the respondents have stated that in cases where the policies seem fair, trust and participation tend to increase. This research explains the role of framing effect, loss aversion, and prospect theory in influencing the behavior of voters; hence, the research is highly significant for policymakers in increasing voter turnout. This study offers a guideline for formulating the government's general policies that aim to apply the principles of behavioral economics to improve electoral participation, especially among vulnerable groups.