Exploring the Role of Climate Change in Forced Migration Using an Agent-Based Model of Human Mobility

Abstract

This paper examines how climate change contributes to forced migration by applying an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate human mobility in response to environmental stressors such as rising temperatures, sea-level rise, and extreme droughts. The analysis will seek to formulate a paradigm that captures the dynamic relationship between climate change and migration decision-making, offering insights into the link between climate stress and population displacement. The ABM models agents' migration choices, which are influenced by environmental factors, social networks, and resource availability. The main findings indicate that migration rates are much higher in areas with high environmental stress, e.g., coastal areas and drought-affected regions. For example, simulations indicated that agents in regions with severe drought migrated at a 50% rate, while those in areas facing high sea-level rise showed a 45% migration rate. Furthermore, water scarcity was identified as a primary driver, triggering migration in 45% of affected agents, and drought has the most considerable influence on migration choices, with 45 % of agents migrating out of areas with extreme water scarcity and drought. The paper is relevant to the knowledge of the migration caused by climate, which can serve as a predictive instrument to help policy-makers and humanitarian agencies manage the risks of migration. The study, however, has its limitations that include the omission of socio-economic and political forces that may affect migration patterns. These variables should be included in future studies to have a more complete picture of the climate-induced migration.